The Way The Unusual Season Broke the Conventional Coach of the Year Mould.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still